I think the top 4 most likely to win are (in no particular order): Spain, Argentina, France, and England.
Spain feels like they're the most complete besides a good #9. Ferran is ok but not consistent.
Argentina only because they're going to give their all and it's Messi's last world cup. I don't think they'll win but the Messi factor is always there and Julian Alvarez is pretty good too. If they manage to win back to back world cups it would be pretty impressive and only further cement Messi as the best to ever play.
France also has a ridiculously good team on paper but it feels like they've been underperforming. Mbappe definitely rises to the occasion and Dembele had a great season with PSG. We'll see if he can maintain his form. I do feel like they're missing creativity that Pogba and Griezmann provided.
I believe England just had a perfect world cup qualifying campaign. Not a single goal scored against them if I'm not mistaken. Good players, good coach. Rashford is playing well at Barca, Harry Kane might be the current best #9 in the world, and they have really good squad depth overall.
Not in the top 4 but I think might make a good run are Colombia (2nd place in the last Copa America) and Luis Diaz is playing great. They've been a pretty solid team lately and James Rodriguez still manages to perform well for the national team. I'll be rooting for them.
Norway might have a good run as well. They seem to be playing well together plus there's the goal scoring monster that is Haaland.
Portugal has a pretty decent team on paper. If they manage to get it together then they could make a deep run. I don't have high expectations though.
