Adding this before TNF starts as this write-up may take some time:
TNF:
CLE(+3.5)(W) - Heavy pros vs. Joes game. Public is betting HEAVILY on the Steelers right now. I don't know his exact record, but Tomlin on TNF games on the road against divisional opponents allegedly is pretty atrocious. Also, snow and rain are in the forecast tonight. Unders in Totals favor the underdogs most of the time, so I'm going to go with Cleveland (even though I HATE doing this).
Edit: Here's the rest of my write up:
1 PM ET:
MIN(-2.5)(W) - Orthodox thinking would want you to fade road division favorites. Not here. The X factor here is rookie Caleb Williams vs. veteran DC Brian Flores, who has been a revelation for the Vikings defense this season. He's going to everything he can to confuse the living shit out of the Heisman Trophy winner.
IND(+7.5)(L) - Pros I've talked to are LOVING the Colts this week. Detroit will be treating this as more of a look ahead game before the Thanksgiving matchup hosting the Bears whilst playing perfect football right now. Anthony Richardson has gotten a lot better since that game where he wasn't conditioned enough and had to sit out a play. Shane Steichen has put something in AR's drink because his playing has significantly improved. 7.5 is also a LOT of points for an Indy squad that isn't too bad. On the other side, Goff is not as good on the road, and is a much worse QB vs zone defense. Indy's foundation on defense is zone coverage. Look for Indy to pick off Goff as much as they can.
DAL(+10.5)(W) - I fucking hate myself. However, Cowboys are different on the road than at home, where they haven't won a single game this season, and the Saints and Lions have scored more TDs in their house than the Cowboys have all season up to this point. Jayden Daniels looks like he's starting to fall back to earth and Bo Nix has climbed up the rookie of the year odds. I'm 99% betting the number here.
CAR(+11.5)(W) - Listen. Listen. Listen. I know. Carolina sucks ass, but pros and I have liked what we have seen in Bryce Young last week. Even if you don't, it wouldn't be bad to just bet the number here. KC under Mahomes is 0-3-1 ATS when the spread is larger than 10. And if you don't like that, if anything, KC ML is a guarantee at this point.
HOU(-6.5)(L) - This line was pretty scary at first before I bit the bullet and bought a point. It has moved back and forth from 8.5 and 7.5 for a while. Houston is a MASSIVE public play this week. Any other year I would be betting the Titans. However, Tennessee has looked like they've given up. I know the public tends to be the ones getting suckered in, but the public has been making bank and I want a piece of it! Tennessee meanwhile isn't a bad squad. Their run game is very good under Pollard and their defense is decent. Their issue? Will Levis/Mason Rudolph. They suck ASS. Also, Texans have had ten(!) first half covers this year. They don't mess around. I expect Houston to cover the first half and not let go of their lead since it will mean putting the ball in the hands of those 2 boneheads to even have a chance in that game.
4 PM ET:
LV(+7.5)(L) - It's like Vegas finds a way to stick around but blow it at the end. This is the week they don't blow it (if they do then fml).
GB(-2.5)(W) - We just got news that Purdy and Bosa are going to be out. I already knew that they were going to questionable so I got them at 3.5 with a one point purchase. This is an obvious win from GB here.
ARI(+1)(L) - Geno Smith is 3-10 ATS at home. Seahawks also have no identity. Arizona knows who they are. If you can, take them as the underdog.
SNF:
LAR(+3.5)(L) - Since Week 5, Philly's defense has been #1 in EPA. They have a great secondary. Rams, meanwhile, have been very inconsistent. However, be careful. Hurts has not been good in night games on the road. I'm still taking that risk.
. It’s like the Boston Bruins and Edmonton Oilers ruining my 12 team NHL parlay last night! All they had to do was just win their games/not cover their spreads!!
