Another week, another list of bets! Had a great NFL weekend last week that made me wish I never bet on college football where I went 1-4. But it's okay since the NFL weekend saved me and brought me to a winning week! Here are my 10 picks:
NCAA:
Florida +10.5(L) vs. Georgia: A neutral site game in Jacksonville. Renamed it to the Florida-Georgia game from The Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party. To me, it was, is, and always will be the latter, forever and ever. If anyone hasn't gone to this game yet, you definitely should. It's a LOT of fun. LOTS of drinking if you like that. As far as the teams go, Florida is a very underrated team that's been overlooked because of their disastrous first game on national TV vs. Miami. They're kicking off tomorrow and going through a fucking gauntlet of a schedule.
Michigan State +8.5(L) vs. Indiana: Michigan State has a mobile QB that is very athletic but turns the ball over a lot. However, aside from that, they have a decent defense and good weapons on the outside. Indiana meanwhile could be caught looking ahead to their game vs. Michigan. A road game is never easy, and MSU at home with 8.5? Give me Spartans all DAY!
Iowa -2.5(W) vs. Wisconsin: Wisconsin usually has Iowa's number, but a few factors are leading me to pick the Hawks: Wisconsin's rush defense is very very meh, while Iowa has a Doak Walker award candidate in the backfield who is averaging over 100 ypg and is on pace to break the school single season rushing yards record AND touchdowns record; Wisconsin is averaging less points than Iowa this season which is ungodly shocking given who Iowa is and who Wisconsin has as their head coach; Iowa is starting a new QB that can actually move his legs which will make Wisconsin take him into account on critical third downs; and finally these games tend to be pretty close if, and only if, Iowa's offense is half-decent, and Iowa's offense is more than half decent on at least one part of their offense this year.
NFL:
1 PM ET:
DAL(+3.5)(L) - Listen, I HATE doing this, but Falcons defense this year has been terrible on third down, and their pass rush is awful. Also, Cowboys are better on the road than at home, for some reason. A comfortable Dak is a good Dak. It will be a close game and if this line was -2.5 I'd take Atlanta. Also, Atlanta's and Kirk's best games have come from the Bucs and the Panthers. Lol.
LAC(-1.5)(W) - Pros LOVE Jameis and the Browns this week. However, Chargers defense is a lot better than whatever the Ravens defense has been. They are equal to the Ravens in sack rate, and are one of the best rush defenses when only sending 6. Also, Jameis is very very hot and cold. Herbert is also a much better QB than Jameis and is not a turnover machine like him either.
NE(+3.5)(W) - Mostly because I really don't trust Tennessee. Will Levis may be playing, and if he is, I'm hammering New England here. Will Levis absolutely stinks, and Jacoby Brissett will likely be starting for the Pats.
WSH(-2.5)(W) - Daniel Jones is truly awful. The only reason he's starting is 1). dead cap money the Giants will have to get rid of if they cut him, and 2). John Mara loves him, even when the rest of the organization wants him gone. Also, Tyrone Tracy Jr. will not be playing this weekend.
NO(-6.5)(L) - I hate betting on NOLA. Derek Carr is one of the worst QBs against the spread. Dennis Allen is also one of the worst coaches against the spread. However, this is Carolina we're talking here. They could possibly be worse than the 0-16 Detroit Lions, because at least the Lions lost in funky ways at the end of games. Carolina seems to have given up after the 3rd quarter every game.
DEN(+10.5)(L) - Lots of things going for Denver here. 1). Lamar is 29-35 ATS when he is a favorite of 3 points or more. 2). Denver's defense is underrated. They're 1st in passing yards per attempt allowed, league leaders in pressure rate, tied for 4th in rushing yards per carry allowed. This matches up very well against Lamar and Derrick Henry.
4 PM ET:
GB(+3.5)(L) - So glad I bet this before the Jordan Love news, as that news put the line down to 3. Winds will be 15 mph+ which will make Goff struggle. No other QB has such a Jekyll and Hyde stat line when it comes to Goff outside and inside. LaFleur is 24-11 against the spread as an underdog, and the Pros love the Packers this week.