Terrible week last week. First losing weekend since posting my picks on here. Hopefully I can bounce back this weekend
NCAA SATURDAY FOOTBALL:
Illinois +22 (L) - Illinois is a great football team. Oregon is humming, but Bret Bielema has great things going for this program. Oregon definitely wins here but I think Illinois will keep it closer than most people expect.
LSU (PICK)(L) - For me this is a game of QBs. I'm picking Nussmeier over Weigman. Kyle Field is going to be rocking but LSU takes the upset.
NAVY +14.5 (L) - This may be the upset of the week. Navy is humming right now and a big part of this bet is me wanting an undefeated matchup between Army and Navy for the AAC Championship AND an Army Navy game THE WEEK AFTER. FOOTBALL GODS. GIMME THIS. JUST THIS ONCE.
Alabama -16.5 (W) - Bama just came off a loss and are going to play angry. I don't think Mizzou is as good as people think they are. I can name 30 teams better than Missouri right now, and I think them having a first round draft pick in Luther Burden III has been inflating them a bit all season.
Wisconsin +7.5(L) - Night game? Check. At Camp Randall? Check. Penn State coming in as the #3 team in the country? Check. Penn State treating this as a look ahead game before their matchup vs. Ohio State? Definitely. I can see the Badgers winning outright. They've had a habit of doing this since 2003 to top teams. They'll do it again.
NFL:
1 PM ET:
MIA(-2.5)(L) - Tua is coming back and Miami has beaten bad defenses this year at home under the scorching humid sun. Cardinals defense is really bad. I see Achane and Hill finally having a great day.
ATL(-2.5)(W) - Baker all of a sudden has zero weapons on the outside. Mike Evans is out until Week 11. Godwin out for the season. His best target now will be Cade Otton. That's a STEEP drop in talent. This is the week Baker gets exposed. Atlanta on the other hand, will be motivated with 2 wins over the second place Bucs with the solid position as first in the division.
DET(-11)(W) - Honestly, given the matchup...I was shocked it wasn't around -14. An 11 point spread is an absolute STEAL. Detroit is at home. Jared finally got his bad game out of the way. Titans meanwhile just traded away their best weapon to KC (FUCK THE CHIEFS GODDAMNIT), essentially saying they're giving up. A bunch of guys last week made business decisions for Tennessee. Only way Detroit doesn't cover is if the Lions starting beating themselves.
JAC(+4.5)(W) - Pros love Jacksonville this week, but moreso because they don't like Green Bay. The Packers are due for a let down game, and this is likely it. On the road, to the Florida heat, against a Jags team that is finally back home after 2 weeks in London. Doug Pederson and this Jags team finally have something to build upon after decimating the Patriots. Also, some of the pros I've talked to said Jacksonville has had a huge share of bad luck, and the public thinks that means Jacksonville is in the same league as Tennessee. Nonsense. Gimme the Jags.
IND(+7.5)(W) - Houston doesn't have Nico Collins. C.J. Stroud is a different QB without him. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor is back practicing and could be available this weekend. Having JT behind AR is going to be huge as they'll be on schedule with a lot of plays instead of playing catchup, which has been the bane for AR the past few weeks.
CLE(+10.5)(W) - I fucking hated this pick when I saw this matchup 2 weeks ago, but with the news of Watson being out for the rest of the season, I feel a lot better about this team. There's nothing that Watson did that made me feel better about the Browns chances at any point up to this week. Deshaun gone makes me feel significantly better. I still hate this pick, but Lamar as a huge favorite like this is not a position I never really like to bet on, especially if the Browns are the home division dog. Winston is super inconsistent, and it could be super ugly for him, but I'm still going to bet this way.
4 PM ET:
BUF(-2.5)(W) - Seattle's defense isn't that great. The only reason they're first is because SF has been decimated by injuries this season. Josh Allen with Amari Cooper finally has a weapon he can really depend on as a safety net. Even without Cooper he's been playing at a near MVP level. Watch him turn it up to level 11 as Buffalo runs away with this win.
LAC(-6.5)(W) - I don't like the Chargers, but I don't like the Saints even more. NOLA is a trainwreck right now. Pros also really like the Chargers this game so I'm going to go with them on this one.
CHI(-2.5)(L) - Really wanted Jayden Daniels to play, but it looks unlikely. Marcus Mariota as a QB is...not great. If his first read isn't open, his first instinct is to run. Chicago's defense is one of the better defenses in this league. If they just put a spy on Marcus, it's going to be a long night for him. Give me Chicago!
LV(+10.5)(W) - People will be overrating the Chiefs this week after their win against a team that they beat in the SB last season. Now a division dog over double digits? Yeah, give me Vegas. Pros also LOVE Vegas this week. Also for any daily fantasy people, Brock Bowers is having an all-worldly season. Chiefs are due for a let down spot and this is the perfect spot for them.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
DAL(+4.5)(L) - Niners are decimated by injuries and Purdy has zero weapons at this point. Kyle Shanahan is an amazing coach and he will find a way to win by a FG, but the injuries are due to catch up to them and we'll see them eek out a win against a Dallas team that's honestly really terrible.
Those are my picks! 16 GAME PARLAY $150 to win $1,634,265! LET'S GOOOOOO
NCAA SATURDAY FOOTBALL:
Illinois +22 (L) - Illinois is a great football team. Oregon is humming, but Bret Bielema has great things going for this program. Oregon definitely wins here but I think Illinois will keep it closer than most people expect.
LSU (PICK)(L) - For me this is a game of QBs. I'm picking Nussmeier over Weigman. Kyle Field is going to be rocking but LSU takes the upset.
NAVY +14.5 (L) - This may be the upset of the week. Navy is humming right now and a big part of this bet is me wanting an undefeated matchup between Army and Navy for the AAC Championship AND an Army Navy game THE WEEK AFTER. FOOTBALL GODS. GIMME THIS. JUST THIS ONCE.
Alabama -16.5 (W) - Bama just came off a loss and are going to play angry. I don't think Mizzou is as good as people think they are. I can name 30 teams better than Missouri right now, and I think them having a first round draft pick in Luther Burden III has been inflating them a bit all season.
Wisconsin +7.5(L) - Night game? Check. At Camp Randall? Check. Penn State coming in as the #3 team in the country? Check. Penn State treating this as a look ahead game before their matchup vs. Ohio State? Definitely. I can see the Badgers winning outright. They've had a habit of doing this since 2003 to top teams. They'll do it again.
NFL:
1 PM ET:
MIA(-2.5)(L) - Tua is coming back and Miami has beaten bad defenses this year at home under the scorching humid sun. Cardinals defense is really bad. I see Achane and Hill finally having a great day.
ATL(-2.5)(W) - Baker all of a sudden has zero weapons on the outside. Mike Evans is out until Week 11. Godwin out for the season. His best target now will be Cade Otton. That's a STEEP drop in talent. This is the week Baker gets exposed. Atlanta on the other hand, will be motivated with 2 wins over the second place Bucs with the solid position as first in the division.
DET(-11)(W) - Honestly, given the matchup...I was shocked it wasn't around -14. An 11 point spread is an absolute STEAL. Detroit is at home. Jared finally got his bad game out of the way. Titans meanwhile just traded away their best weapon to KC (FUCK THE CHIEFS GODDAMNIT), essentially saying they're giving up. A bunch of guys last week made business decisions for Tennessee. Only way Detroit doesn't cover is if the Lions starting beating themselves.
JAC(+4.5)(W) - Pros love Jacksonville this week, but moreso because they don't like Green Bay. The Packers are due for a let down game, and this is likely it. On the road, to the Florida heat, against a Jags team that is finally back home after 2 weeks in London. Doug Pederson and this Jags team finally have something to build upon after decimating the Patriots. Also, some of the pros I've talked to said Jacksonville has had a huge share of bad luck, and the public thinks that means Jacksonville is in the same league as Tennessee. Nonsense. Gimme the Jags.
IND(+7.5)(W) - Houston doesn't have Nico Collins. C.J. Stroud is a different QB without him. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor is back practicing and could be available this weekend. Having JT behind AR is going to be huge as they'll be on schedule with a lot of plays instead of playing catchup, which has been the bane for AR the past few weeks.
CLE(+10.5)(W) - I fucking hated this pick when I saw this matchup 2 weeks ago, but with the news of Watson being out for the rest of the season, I feel a lot better about this team. There's nothing that Watson did that made me feel better about the Browns chances at any point up to this week. Deshaun gone makes me feel significantly better. I still hate this pick, but Lamar as a huge favorite like this is not a position I never really like to bet on, especially if the Browns are the home division dog. Winston is super inconsistent, and it could be super ugly for him, but I'm still going to bet this way.
4 PM ET:
BUF(-2.5)(W) - Seattle's defense isn't that great. The only reason they're first is because SF has been decimated by injuries this season. Josh Allen with Amari Cooper finally has a weapon he can really depend on as a safety net. Even without Cooper he's been playing at a near MVP level. Watch him turn it up to level 11 as Buffalo runs away with this win.
LAC(-6.5)(W) - I don't like the Chargers, but I don't like the Saints even more. NOLA is a trainwreck right now. Pros also really like the Chargers this game so I'm going to go with them on this one.
CHI(-2.5)(L) - Really wanted Jayden Daniels to play, but it looks unlikely. Marcus Mariota as a QB is...not great. If his first read isn't open, his first instinct is to run. Chicago's defense is one of the better defenses in this league. If they just put a spy on Marcus, it's going to be a long night for him. Give me Chicago!
LV(+10.5)(W) - People will be overrating the Chiefs this week after their win against a team that they beat in the SB last season. Now a division dog over double digits? Yeah, give me Vegas. Pros also LOVE Vegas this week. Also for any daily fantasy people, Brock Bowers is having an all-worldly season. Chiefs are due for a let down spot and this is the perfect spot for them.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
DAL(+4.5)(L) - Niners are decimated by injuries and Purdy has zero weapons at this point. Kyle Shanahan is an amazing coach and he will find a way to win by a FG, but the injuries are due to catch up to them and we'll see them eek out a win against a Dallas team that's honestly really terrible.
Those are my picks! 16 GAME PARLAY $150 to win $1,634,265! LET'S GOOOOOO
