ROUGH week last week despite winning more than half of my bets. Parlay was a dud after the 1 PM games Sunday and it did not improve as it got to Monday night.
Time to dust myself off and do another 16 game parlay for you all! $125 parlay bet to win $1,138,996.97. Here are my bets:
SATURDAY NCAA:
BYU -2.5 (W) - BYU is really good and they have an excellent head coach. They're exceeding expectations right now and I expect them to keep this up.
Iowa -2.5 (W) - Their offense is below average at best, but it's mostly because of their shitty QB. They have a decent run game and their RB Kaleb Johnson is highly underrated. Their OL used to be super shit but they have become a top 30 unit. Meanwhile, Washington just came off of an emotional win vs. Michigan in a National Championship rematch, and now need to travel 2 time zones to play in a loud stadium that they've never been to before at 11 AM local which is 9 AM for them. Not ideal. Also college kids are much more up and down when it comes to coming off emotional games, which is why a lot of them have disappointing results after beating top teams.
Kentucky -13.5 (L) - same logic as above. Vandy just beat the number one team in the country last week. Now they need to travel to Kentucky off of a bye for a night game, and also if you haven't been to Lexington at night, it's a rough, loud, and rowdy crowd. Spread is pretty large for my liking but that half point hook off of 14 made me lean towards the Wildcats here.
Texas -13.5* (W) - Unrelated, but if any of you love fried food, go to the Texas State Fair. Everything is bigger and everything you can think of is completely fried, sometimes twice, three times over. Tickets are first put on sale over half a year beforehand and they sell out FAST, so get on your P's and Q's, your eyes peeled, and ears open for information on that. But please, PLEASE take a trip there. It's 100,000% worth it. Just don't die of a heart attack from all the fried grease lol.
Oh right there's a game in Dallas at the Cotton Bowl here too, featuring Oklahoma and Texas. Oklahoma has no offense to save their life (ranked 121st(!) in the country) and Quinn Ewers is back off of an abdominal injury. Even if he has a bad game or goes down, it doesn't hurt to have football royalty as backup.
Tennessee -13.5 (L) - Not much going on here other than Tennessee is still really good and Florida fucking sucks. Also they're going to take the Arkansas loss and fuck up the Gators at home. Poor Florida.
Penn State -2.5 (W) - This is a really really poor matchup for USC. SC's rush defense isn't good, and their pass protection has been suspect this season, and their weaknesses play right into the Lions' strengths. This game could potentially get ugly really quick. Only thing that could save USC is if Penn State's football team went on an all-night drinking bender the night before. I mean, they're in LA, after all. It's not the middle of the mountains in Pennsylvania. Another thing going against the Lions is their kicker. He's been pretty piss poor this season and if SC can hold Penn State to field goal situations, it could play into their hands.
Pittsburgh -2.5 (L) - California just lost an emotional game and now have to travel to an NFL stadium across the country to play another ranked team. Not great.
Oregon +3.5 (W) - Ohio State is the better team on a neutral field. Unfortunately for the Scarlet and Gray, it's not a neutral field at all. It's fucking Autzen Stadium. I've been there. It's fucking LOUD. Also traveling across the country affects pro teams. Imagine what it does to fucking college kids, and to a young Will Howard going into that sort of environment.
SUNDAY NFL:
UK 9:30 AM ET: Chicago -2* (W) - Favorites do better in the UK. Probably because neither have home field advantage. Play it simple. Play it stupid. I'm betting Chicago here.
1 PM ET:
Washington +7.5 (W) - Vegas pros LOVE Washington. Yes, Lamar is 21-1 SU against NFC teams, but he's 4-14 ATS when the spread is above 3. Baltimore's defense has not been great this year and they have a tendency to get soft late in the 4th, especially their pass defense. I don't expect Washington to win, but Jayden's passing, trying to bring his team back, makes the backdoor cover WIDE open.
Tampa Bay -2.5 (W) - Spencer Rattler is starting for the Saints this week. Saints' strength is in their run. However, 2 things are making this a concern: First, the Saints center is out, and without him, they've been 0-3. Second, Vita Vea is back in the DL for Tampa. If Saints can't get their run game going, they're going to have to depend on a rookie's arm in his first start. Yeah, not great. Gimme Tampa.
Green Bay -5.5 (W) - This is a weird game for me. Jordan Love is really good. Matt LaFleur is a really good coach. Arizona is traveling again, but this time across 2 time zones. Kyler Murray is really good. Out of the 16 games I needed to parlay for, this was my 16th choice, and only because I'm banking on Arizona's back end being really bad again. Definitely my weakest bet of the 16.
New England +7.5 (L) - Yes, Pats are starting a rookie. Yes, Pats' David Andrews is on IR. Yes, their OL is in turmoil. But this number is too much for C.J. Stroud on the road. Keep in mind that simply because the Pats offense is shit, their defense is still half-decent. Other than facing a defending Super Bowl NFC Champion, and Aaron Rodgers on Thursday night, their defense has put the Pats in winnable situations. Plus, no NFL team has film on Drake Maye yet.
4 PM ET:
Denver +3.5 (L) - Vegas sharps love Denver in this spot. Bo Nix has played better than Justin Herbert so far. Denver's running game is better than the Chargers so far. Again, public has been getting a beating this year, and the one bad week I had (last weekend) is the weekend the public actually had their best record to date (6-8). I'm sticking with the pros until I completely fall off the rails.
Detroit -2.5 (W) - I've been told the pros love Dallas this week, but this is the one bet I'm not with the pros on. I have no idea what they see in Dallas. They suck. They fucking suck. Other than destroying a shitty Browns team who has a QB that is clearly thinking of other things above the shoulders, they've gotten blown out by the Saints, would've been blown out by the Ravens if Baltimore's secondary decided they actually wanted to show up and play, eeked a win against the Giants on Thursday night (thank you Aubrey for missing that FG so I could win that Giants bet), and only beat the Steelers on a 4th down play after a 45 minute rain delay. Without CeeDee Lamb, this Cowboys team is 5-12 team at best. I think pros are going for the historical trends here because apparently Goff sucks on the road...? But if I used historical trends as a major part of my betting strategy, I would've been bankrupt a long time ago and tried to sign up to be on Tryst's roster to get my ass out of debt. Detroit is the clear better team and they're going to pound the rock against a suspect Dallas D-line.
SNF:
New York Giants +3.5 (L) - Cincinnati is a huge public favorite here, and the pros love the Giants. If Malik Nabers is healthy**, then I suspect this line to swing towards the Giants and possibly go down to +2.5 before kickoff. It's not necessarily that I like either team. I'm just betting the number.
MNF:
New York Jets +3.5 (W) - They fired their head coach. Hackett isn't calling plays on offense anymore. It's Aaron's team now. AND I'M FUCKING ON THE A-ARON TRAIN BABY!! CHOO CHOO!!!! GIMME THE JETS AND GIMME THE FUCKING POINTS! I'M GONNA BE A FUCKING MILLIONAIRE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND WHEN I DO I'M GONNA CONVINCE KENDRA LUST TO COME BACK LET'S GO GO GO!
*Neutral site
**Malik Nabers is out. Cincinnati will likely win. I already put the bet in so hopefully Daniel Jones will keep it close (omg I'm going to lose this parlay FML).
Edit: it's a 17 game parlay not 16. My bad. Everything stays the same I just counted wrong because I'm dumb as shit.
