Sports betting for hobby

[Sexaddict]

Another week another round of NFL picks! I'll be updating this one as there's games tomorrow, Thursday, and Saturday/Sunday, so stay tuned! My picks are in bold.

CHRISTMAS DAY:

KC@PIT(+2.5)(W) - Always take Mahomes under 3. I trust Reid and Mahomes rather than Tomlin and Russ. Pickens is coming back, so that would have leaned me towards PIT +3.5 if I could have got it at that number without buying points.


BAL@HOU(+5.5)(L) - Books are protecting against the number. Classic pros vs. joes game. 64% of tickets on Texans. 80% of money on Baltimore. I’m done betting with the pros. They’ve burned me this season. I’ve been leaning towards fading Lamar on a short week. I know CJ has no Tank Dell, but Baltimore’s pass defense has been atrocious this year. If anything I’ll likely bet Houston’s points in the 1st half as they are the best in the country when it comes to first half leads.


TNF:

SEA@CHI(+2.5)(W) - Great matchup for the Seattle front four. Bears LT Braxton Jones is out for the year and Caleb was already under constant pressure. Caleb will be down a lot of linemen and many books are trying to suck the public in with a Bears +3.5. Seahawks also beat on bad teams as well.



SATURDAY:
4 PM ET:
DEN@CIN(-2.5) - With KC beating Pittsburgh, this is my pick of the week. Cincinnati NEEDS to win this game. Broncos can afford to lose this game and then win against a Carson Wentz led team instead.


SAT. NIGHT FOOTBALL:
ARI@LAR(-4) - Loved Rams at 4. It’s now at 6.5. Rams got away with one in the past 2 weeks, especially against the Jets. This is another game where the Cards could play spoiler but they likely don’t have that attitude. The Carolina game took the wind out of their sails. In fact, it was one of the quietest flights back home from Carolina for Arizona. For the Rams, they need to win out to eliminate any playoff drama in the next 2 weeks.


SUNDAY:
1 PM ET:
IND@NYG(+8) - Drew Lock had an MRI on his shoulder on Monday, but it honestly doesn’t matter. Giants suck ass. How this line isn’t 10 is beyond me. It should definitely be 10. Giants are sitting guys at this point. Shane Steichen seems like they’ve figured out the perfect medium on how to deal with AR.

CAR@TB(-8.5) - what even is this line? WAY too much respect for this Bucs team and too much disrespect for the Panthers. Line should be at around 6. I’m taking the Panthers. You could take a teaser on this for the Bucs and take it down to at least 2.5 if necessary.


4 PM ET:
MIA@CLE(+7.5) - Tua and Miami are not built for this weather. Bad spot for Miami. Great spot for Cleveland to steal one more win before the end of the season. Weather will be cold and rainy.

GB@MIN(-1) - Vikings have done well in one score games this year, and also they are the more complete team.


SNF:
ATL@WSH(-4) - Penix looks great! Safeties can’t come down now with Penix there, and Washington’s defense isn’t THAT great. Washington should have NEVER beat Philly with all of those turnovers.


MNF:
DET@SF(+2.5) - This line is bizarro world. 3.5??? SF cannot score and they cannot finish drives as well as being down to their 4th back. Books are likely hedging from the GB/MIN game to make it so the Detroit Week 18 game doesn’t matter.

Bengals & Dolphins ML.

Both needs a win ALTHOUGH they’re highly dependent on others losing

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[Sexaddict]

Bengals & Dolphins ML.

Both needs a win ALTHOUGH they’re highly dependent on others losing

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[inspectahjamescahtah]

Another week, another round of picks! Last picks of the regular season! Favorites have been absolutely killing it this year, which means I've been betting like absolute dog shit.

Anyway, here are my picks IN BOLD. Just took some notes since I'm still kind of busy right now.


SATURDAY:
4:30 PM ET:
CLE@BAL(-16.5)(W)
-Baltimore will play their best players since they want the 3 seed
-All Ravens money the minute it opened


8:00 PM ET:
CIN@PIT(+1.5)(L; FML)
-Steelers will know whether they have a chance to win the division, or stay/move down under?
-Steelers will definitely not rest starters.
-Get right game for Russell Wilson, and Nice bounce back spot for Mike Tomlin as an underdog at home, which hasn't happened often this season.
-Steelers would rather face Houston than Baltimore
-Cincinnati, meanwhile, are playing for their playoff lives, but Steelers have the home crowd plus the better defense.


SUNDAY:
1 PM ET:
WSH@DAL(+4.5)(L; WTF)
-Washington will play their best starters for a better seed
-Cowboys had their Super Bowl against the Bucs.
-Cowboys players have their Cancun trips booked, ready to go.
-Washington, meanwhile, don’t want to face the same team 3 times a season.
-This line should be WSH -6 at kickoff.

HOU@TEN(-1)(L)
-Houston is locked in at the 4 spot, with nothing to play for here.
-HUGE moves up and down with this line. Opened as a 1 point UD for Tennessee. Went as high as Titans as 4 point favorites.
-Public money is hammering this Texans side…a team that has nothing to play for.
-Tennessee players will be playing for their jobs.

NYG@PHI(-3.5)(L)
-Philly has nothing to play for. They’re locked into the 2 seed. Second stringers are playing

BUF@NE(+3.5)(W)
-Buffalo locked in at 2 seed. Nothing to play for.
-Drake Maye is starting for New England, pissing off Pats fans LOL.


4 PM ET:
KC@DEN(-9.5)(W)
-KC will rest everyone for 2 weeks. Will start Carson Wentz.
-Denver is playing for their playoff lives.
-Have a feeling that this game will be a lot closer than what Vegas is implying, but still I don't think Chiefs will be giving their hand in this meaningless game.

LAC@LV(+4.5)(W)
-I like the Chargers here. They’ve played great down the stretch. They’ve found their identity on both sides of the ball.
-This line may even be slightly underrated for the Chargers here. Might go up to 6 by kickoff.

SEA@LAR(+2.5)(W)
-Geno has an incentive to hit in his contract.
-Rams will be resting their starters as they have locked the division title.
-Rams already have had OL issues. Now they’re going to play their backups with Jimmy Garoppolo playing QB.


SNF:
MIN@DET(-3.5)(L)
-Divisional games are always close in the NFC north, and for all the marbles now, they will be fighting for the 1 seed
-Detroit has a lot of injuries and Brian Flores will bring the heat
-Detroit will win this game but it will be within 3 in my opinion

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[Sexaddict]

Another week, another round of picks! Last picks of the regular season! Favorites have been absolutely killing it this year, which means I've been betting like absolute dog shit.

Anyway, here are my picks IN BOLD. Just took some notes since I'm still kind of busy right now.


SATURDAY:
4:30 PM ET:
CLE@BAL(-16.5)
-Baltimore will play their best players since they want the 3 seed
-All Ravens money the minute it opened


8:00 PM ET:
CIN@PIT(+1.5)
-Steelers will know whether they have a chance to win the division, or stay/move down under?
-Steelers will definitely not rest starters.
-Get right game for Russell Wilson, and Nice bounce back spot for Mike Tomlin as an underdog at home, which hasn't happened often this season.
-Steelers would rather face Houston than Baltimore
-Cincinnati, meanwhile, are playing for their playoff lives, but Steelers have the home crowd plus the better defense.


SUNDAY:
1 PM ET:
WSH@DAL(+4.5)
-Washington will play their best starters for a better seed
-Cowboys had their Super Bowl against the Bucs.
-Cowboys players have their Cancun trips booked, ready to go.
-Washington, meanwhile, don’t want to face the same team 3 times a season.
-This line should be WSH -6 at kickoff.

HOU@TEN(-1)
-Houston is locked in at the 4 spot, with nothing to play for here.
-HUGE moves up and down with this line. Opened as a 1 point UD for Tennessee. Went as high as Titans as 4 point favorites.
-Public money is hammering this Texans side…a team that has nothing to play for.
-Tennessee players will be playing for their jobs.

NYG@PHI(-3.5)
-Philly has nothing to play for. They’re locked into the 2 seed. Second stringers are playing

BUF@NE(+3.5)
-Buffalo locked in at 2 seed. Nothing to play for.
-Drake Maye is starting for New England, pissing off Pats fans LOL.


4 PM ET:
KC@DEN(-9.5)
-KC will rest everyone for 2 weeks. Will start Carson Wentz.
-Denver is playing for their playoff lives.
-Have a feeling that this game will be a lot closer than what Vegas is implying, but still I don't think Chiefs will be giving their hand in this meaningless game.

LAC@LV(+4.5)
-I like the Chargers here. They’ve played great down the stretch. They’ve found their identity on both sides of the ball.
-This line may even be slightly underrated for the Chargers here. Might go up to 6 by kickoff.

SEA@LAR(+2.5)
-Geno has an incentive to hit in his contract.
-Rams will be resting their starters as they have locked the division title.
-Rams already have had OL issues. Now they’re going to play their backups with Jimmy Garoppolo playing QB.


SNF:
MIN@DET(-3.5)
-Divisional games are always close in the NFC north, and for all the marbles now, they will be fighting for the 1 seed
-Detroit has a lot of injuries and Brian Flores will bring the heat
-Detroit will win this game but it will be within 3 in my opinion

I'm with you on the Steelers game. Russ will also want to show the rest of the league why the Steelers rightfully belong in the playoffs.

I'm going with Denver ML just to be safe. The Vikings/Lions game is a tough one—as you said, it's a divisional matchup, and both teams has a lot on the line. I'm taking Detroit +5.

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[inspectahjamescahtah]

I'm with you on the Steelers game. Russ will also want to show the rest of the league why the Steelers rightfully belong in the playoffs.

I'm going with Denver ML just to be safe. The Vikings/Lions game is a tough one—as you said, it's a divisional matchup, and both teams has a lot on the line. I'm taking Detroit +5.

Steelers losing by 2 would happen because the betting gods fucking hate me.

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[hundredpac]

Steelers losing by 2 would happen because the betting gods fucking hate me.

I told my group chat bengals would 100% win but I didn’t know if by 3 or 7 and it ends up being fucking 2.

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[usngub00]

I told my group chat bengals would 100% win but I didn’t know if by 3 or 7 and it ends up being fucking 2.

blame the dumb special teams player. i have a lot of money on bengals making it and that play almost cost me

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[hundredpac]

blame the dumb special teams player. i have a lot of money on bengals making it and that play almost cost me

Bro no way the broncos lose today but then again all the must win teams are getting hosed rn.

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[inspectahjamescahtah]

I’m currently 5-4 but these lines I swear to fucking god…

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[Sexaddict]

Lions! What a blowout!

It could be their year

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[inspectahjamescahtah]

Lions! What a blowout!

It could be their year

Very likely. I can see them making it to NOLA but idk how theyre going to fair against a Mahomes or Allen. Lions pass rush has struggled and if u give either of those guys time its going to be a long night for them.

Then again, I’ve had a SHIT year this year so since I said this I’m sure lions are going to win the whole thing.

Also Buffalo vs. Detroit is my dream Super Bowl matchup. 2 franchises who are desperate for a title going at it? Hell yeah!

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[Sexaddict]

Very likely. I can see them making it to NOLA but idk how theyre going to fair against a Mahomes or Allen. Lions pass rush has struggled and if u give either of those guys time its going to be a long night for them.

Then again, I’ve had a SHIT year this year so since I said this I’m sure lions are going to win the whole thing.

Also Buffalo vs. Detroit is my dream Super Bowl matchup. 2 franchises who are desperate for a title going at it? Hell yeah!

Many people has Buf - lions as their dream SB but as a chief, i would not like that.

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[inspectahjamescahtah]

Wild Card picks! I have a tendency to do slightly better in playoff games so let's see how this goes.
Picks are in bold:


SATURDAY:
4:30 PM ET:
LAC@HOU(+2.5)(L)
-How the Chargers are only-2.5 favorites are beyond me.
-Houston has had offensive line issues all season, and now they have to face Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.
-Herbert plays sound football even against good defenses, and Houston has a good defense. He also loves to push the ball downfield.
-Harbaugh is 3-0 ATS on a short week. Houston has struggled on short weeks.
-Trends that back Houston: Chargers are playing their 3rd straight road game, and they are the favorites for the 3rd straight time.
-Smart money is coming ALL IN on Houston and I don't really understand why.
-Pick feels insanely chalky

8 PM ET:
PIT@BAL(-10.5)(L)
-Third time these 2 teams are meeting each other
-Pittsburgh got embarrassed on national TV in Week 16 on Saturday night
-Steelers will be motivated to try to upset
-Zay Flowers had a knee injury and is DTD
-Joey Porter Jr. will return, but will be without Donte Jackson
-Pittsburgh has lost 4 straight and hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game since December 8th
-Ravens haven’t scored less than 31 points, let alone lose, since December 1
-Mike Tomlin has dominated as an underdog against divisional opponents


SUNDAY:
1 PM ET:
DEN@BUF(-10.5)(L)
-Bo Nix has played VERY well. He’s 12-5 ATS this season.
-Sean Payton vs. Doug McDermott
-Usually fade rookie QBs on their first game in the playoffs, but sharps are on Denver.
-Buffalo will win, but 10 points is a LOT for a Buffalo defense that has struggled a bit against winning teams.
-also, betting against Sean Payton is not the best idea historically

4 PM ET:
GB@PHI(-3.5)(W)
-Bet this when it opened at -3.5.
-Pack will be without Christian Watson, who is a big loss. Although he hasn’t demanded a lot of targets, he draws a lot of attention
-Jordan Love was going to play, but have a LOT of injuries. Even Jordan Love is banged up.
-Wait for Hurts news Wednesday
-Eagles have all 22 starters from Week 1 still healthy this late into the season.
-Eagles got a lot of much-needed rest.
-If you want to take GB, take GB 1Q or even 1H.
-GB struggles against stopping the run.


SNF:
WSH@TB(-2.5)(L)
-Again, like Denver and Buffalo, it is a rookie QB against a veteran QB
-Washington’s secondary has struggled this year, and now they need to play against Evans and McMillan
-Commanders are overvalued. The line should be TB -4.5.
-This is a great bounce back spot for the Bucs.


MNF:
MIN@LAR(+1.5)
-Was picking Rams, but with the fires and moving location, I am picking the Vikings.
-There should be more Vikings fans in Arizona than Rams fans

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[Sexaddict]

Wild Card picks! I have a tendency to do slightly better in playoff games so let's see how this goes.
Picks are in bold:


SATURDAY:
4:30 PM ET:
LAC@HOU(+2.5)
-How the Chargers are only-2.5 favorites are beyond me.
-Houston has had offensive line issues all season, and now they have to face Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.
-Herbert plays sound football even against good defenses, and Houston has a good defense. He also loves to push the ball downfield.
-Harbaugh is 3-0 ATS on a short week. Houston has struggled on short weeks.
-Trends that back Houston: Chargers are playing their 3rd straight road game, and they are the favorites for the 3rd straight time.
-Smart money is coming ALL IN on Houston and I don't really understand why.
-Pick feels insanely chalky

8 PM ET:
PIT@BAL(-10.5)
-Third time these 2 teams are meeting each other
-Pittsburgh got embarrassed on national TV in Week 16 on Saturday night
-Steelers will be motivated to try to upset
-Zay Flowers had a knee injury and is DTD
-Joey Porter Jr. will return, but will be without Donte Jackson
-Pittsburgh has lost 4 straight and hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game since December 8th
-Ravens haven’t scored less than 31 points, let alone lose, since December 1
-Mike Tomlin has dominated as an underdog against divisional opponents


SUNDAY:
1 PM ET:
DEN@BUF(-10.5)
-Bo Nix has played VERY well. He’s 12-5 ATS this season.
-Sean Payton vs. Doug McDermott
-Usually fade rookie QBs on their first game in the playoffs, but sharps are on Denver.
-Buffalo will win, but 10 points is a LOT for a Buffalo defense that has struggled a bit against winning teams.
-also, betting against Sean Payton is not the best idea historically

4 PM ET:
GB@PHI(-3.5)
-Bet this when it opened at -3.5.
-Pack will be without Christian Watson, who is a big loss. Although he hasn’t demanded a lot of targets, he draws a lot of attention
-Jordan Love was going to play, but have a LOT of injuries. Even Jordan Love is banged up.
-Wait for Hurts news Wednesday
-Eagles have all 22 starters from Week 1 still healthy this late into the season.
-Eagles got a lot of much-needed rest.
-If you want to take GB, take GB 1Q or even 1H.
-GB struggles against stopping the run.


SNF:
WSH@TB(-2.5)
-Again, like Denver and Buffalo, it is a rookie QB against a veteran QB
-Washington’s secondary has struggled this year, and now they need to play against Evans and McMillan
-Commanders are overvalued. The line should be TB -4.5.
-This is a great bounce back spot for the Bucs.


MNF:
MIN@LAR(+1.5)
-Was picking Rams, but with the fires and moving location, I am picking the Vikings.
-There should be more Vikings fans in Arizona than Rams fans

I like that. Even though we’re into the second quarter, I like that. I took the Chargers ML though.

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[inspectahjamescahtah]

God I fucking SUCK at this

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[Sexaddict]

So this wild card weekend was... actually okay minus the Chargers game. I want to forget that.
I had the Commanders +8, THANKS JAYDEN!

Gonna go for Rams +11 tonight.

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[inspectahjamescahtah]

So this wild card weekend was... actually okay minus the Chargers game. I want to forget that.
I had the Commanders +8, THANKS JAYDEN!

Gonna go for Rams +11 tonight.

I need to start doing more teasers. These lines are fucking me up!

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[hundredpac]

I picked Chargers and Bucs which killed my winnings from eagles, Bills and Ravens. Go Vikings tonight

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[Sexaddict]

Chiefs ML, Lions ML, Eagles ML & Bills +8

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[inspectahjamescahtah2]

So I'm currently having technical issues with my main account (@inspectahjamescahtah) so I made a new one just so I can post my picks (and also because I love this community and all of you sick fuckers lmao).

THE GRIND DOESN'T STOP! Picks in bold.


SATURDAY
4:30 PM ET:
HOU@KC(-6.5)
-Pros betting Houston because Mahomes don’t do well as a huge favorite
-Regular season? Definitely betting Houston. Playoffs? Chiefs.
—Betting against the Chiefs in the playoffs is a huge risk.
—no pro bettors are planting their flag on this Houston side.
—Chiefs are fully rested and more healthy than in Week 17
—Jones, Mahomes should be healthier now.
-Another weather type game. KC will be in the teens with a chance of snow at kickoff.
—This can also be an under play in total.
-Some lines are now at -8.5. Definitely a teaser play down to -2.5 if necessary.

8 PM ET:
WSH@DET(-9)
-Can Lions take away the RPO?
-Washington bettors want the ball in Jayden Daniels’ hands
-Are injuries on defense were overrated, or they’ve gotten lucky with their competition?
-Playoff speed is different. It could take Jayden Daniels a little bit of getting used to.


SUNDAY
3 PM ET:
LAR@PHI(-6)
-Both Pros and Joes are on Philly
-Weather favors Philly right now: Dome team traveling east on a short week

6 PM ET:
BAL@BUF(-2)
-Money is coming back on Bills after the public hammered Baltimore when this line came out
-If anything, I’m hammering the under. 2 running teams in cold weather? Surely will not going to go over 51.5!

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