it would take a hit but would bounce back in a big way once main stream artists from all backgrounds launched on there. Don't believe me...break it down
Currently OF is labeled as a porn site. they take 20% from every transaction and they PAY 7-12% of that 20% to the their credit card processor because they are labeled high risk
lets say tomorrow the purge hardcore adult content and they are now listed as a non-high risk company their fee to the credit card company drips to 2.75-3.25% per transaction
and since they are no longer considered a porn site
all it takes is a performer like Taylor Swift with 95 million fans to start an OF so that all her Fans can see all her back stage stuff, behind the scenes access to music videos and anything else she wants to post
lets say that only 10% of her fans join...9 million
Taylor makes her OF price set at $50 per month
OF is taking 20% which is $10 per subscriber. And paying their credit card company $1,.65 on the high end
making OF $75,150,000 a month of Miss Swift
and making Miss Swift $360,000,000 a month
you don't think news like that coming from someone like her would get or musicians, actors and popular sports figures doing the same thing???
OF will purge porn from its system and not blink an eye
People as popular as Taylor Swift don't need Onlyfans at all.
What's it take to build a website as good as OF? I have never done something of that scale, but I've paid $5-10k for a commercial website to sell goods or services. Let's pretend that it takes 100x that much to duplicate a copy of OF's model, so $1M, except exclusively for Taylor. And let's also say that the maintainence costs are ridiculous, $10M a month to keep it running.
By your numbers, she's losing $75M a month to OF's commission. Why not just build her own subscription site, save $65M a month, and also not be associated with a platform formerly known for hardcore porn?
Taylor Swift, Drake, The Rock, Tom Cruise, none of these people need what OF can provide them. As you said, they bring their own audience, it's not them tapping into OF's audience.
Not only that, if OF purges porn with the idea that famous people will take it up to release "exclusive content," what's differentiating them from Instagram? Aren't you already able to do some sort of subscription service, definitely have seen alerts IG gives me about signing up to join some sort of fanclub that an IG account I follow launched.
Finally, not that this matters as much, but you severely overestimate the conversion rate. Taylor won't get anywhere near 10% of her 95M fans to sign up for a $50/month OF subscription. Look at her IG posts, how many likes is she getting on average? I'm guessing somewhere around 1-3%. 5% would be massive. Likes are free to give and she can't even convert 10%, how is she gonna convert 10% into a paying audience? How many of her 95M fans can even afford 50 American dollars a month, some percentage are children or poor people living in third world countries that make $50 a month in wages. Even among Americans, most people live paycheck to paycheck. $50/month = $600/year. Many don't even have $600 in their bank accounts. Here's a Forbes article with some data:
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/living-paycheck-to-paycheck-statistics-2024/
Onlyfans converting into a celebrity non-porn sub site would be almost like if Pornhub purged porn, renamed to VidHub, and just tried to be Youtube. Or if MyFreeCams purged porn, renamed to MyFreeGames, and tried to become Twitch. Not quite as bad as those because OF is the leader in the paid subscription website niche, but still, highly unlikely to have anywhere near their current success.
